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The Polymarket water tower can be seen from I-94, but isn’t overly prominent, as the interstate passes beneath three bridges—Concord Avenue, train tracks, and a service road—near the Mount Elliott exit.

But the advertisement is still garnering plenty of attention online and in the news, with the controversy surrounding the Polymarket branding a major topic of discussion in prediction market and gaming circles.

A man who answered the phone at Mount Elliott Crushing said he was unaware of any controversy involving Polymarket and the state.

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Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.

What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.

The burning question is where such funds will come from if Lula shuts down the betting industry. Yet, no one points out to him that players will simply migrate to the illegal market. Betting will continue to exist, but without formal tax revenue, oversight or player protections.

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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.