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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Supporters of the change argued that people aged 18 to 20 are already treated as adults in many areas of civic and economic life, and that retaining a separate gambling threshold of 21 could push some towards unlicensed sites.
During the committee stage debate, Labour and Home Affairs Minister Major General Pius Mokgware warned parliament against adopting rules that could not be enforced in practice.
“Do not have legislations which you cannot enforce, it is dangerous,” Mokgware told parliament.
How to play Christmas Catch
Bally’s CEO Robeson Reeves thanked Mircheva for her contribution and expressed confidence in Papanier’s ability to ensure continuity during the transition.
“Having spent more than two decades in key operating and financial leadership roles at Bally’s, George has been instrumental in developing our business model, asset portfolio and growth strategy,” Reeves said.
“He steps into the interim role supported by an experienced finance organisation and I am confident that our reporting, controls and capital markets work will continue without disruption.”