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“Brazil learned a great deal from the experience of regulators worldwide while developing our own regulatory framework, and I view the IAGR as one of the most important forums for this exchange of knowledge,” he stated.

“Although each jurisdiction has its own legal system, market characteristics and regulatory priorities, many of the challenges we face are increasingly global. Combatting the illegal market, preventing money laundering, protecting consumers and ensuring betting integrity require ever-greater cooperation among regulators from different countries.”

Macorin will attend the IAGR Annual Conference in Peru (19-22 October). There, regulators and industry representatives from around the world will discuss emerging challenges and opportunities in gaming and betting regulation.

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Entain warned that a sharp rise in MGD could prompt customers to migrate out of the regulated market, estimating that up to £1 billion in gambling stakes could shift to the black market.

The company cited analyses from the Office for Budget Responsibility which suggested previous gambling tax rises had reduced expected tax receipts, including a £500m reduction in forecast receipts for 2029-30. This revenue, writes David, would flow to the black market. 

A new report commissioned by Euromat, and produced by Regulus Partners and Helios, has estimated that Europe’s black market has sustained a compound annual growth rate of 18% between 2019 and 2026, and will be worth up to €13 billion by the end of the year.

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“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”

Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.

Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”