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“Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas,” York said. “I hope you prove them wrong.”
In response, DeNault noted that prediction markets regulated on the federal level by the CFTC offer a “safer alternative” than many offshore operators that lack the requisite consumer protections.
“You can go the combative route and ban something that’s federally regulated,” he said. “But what you’ll end up with is a bunch of customers in Texas just going offshore.”
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There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.
A hearing before the Supreme Court would be the culmination of what has been the biggest sports betting-related development since PASPA. Perhaps no other issue has united gaming stakeholders from various companies, tribes, states and regulators.
Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.
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A third arbitration produced another award worth nearly $1.3 million, taking the amount Laos is seeking to more than $5 million.
Seven years later, Laos says it is still trying to collect.
That effort has led the government to Baldwin, Scott, and Bridge Capital, even though none was personally named as owing the money in the arbitration awards.
