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Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

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Commercial confidentiality prevents Wilson from attaching individual numbers to those partnerships, but he is unequivocal about the jackpot engine’s record. “Every operator or brand that’s launched our jackpot engine has seen an immediate lift in GGR,” he says.

That impact, he argues, comes from preparation as much as product. Splash Tech works with partners to establish expectations and benchmark performance against relevant KPIs before launch. On the free-to-play side, the picture is similarly collaborative rather than automatic.

“Wherever there is investment from the operator or the platform in properly investing in the infrastructure needed to maximise the output of the product, we have seen great returns, ROI, on that investment,” Wilson says.

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